We got 1 of our underdogs out of three last week. The AI’s call that the Ravens’ backup QB Tyler Huntley was capable and being overlooked was spot on. We clearly missed what the Broncos had to offer and it looks like the AI is ignoring Denver again.
This week the AI liked most of the favorites but here a few interesting picks.
CIN Win “Key Factors for CIN Win:
- Home field advantage (31.5 PPG at home)
- Offensive efficiency (63.6% third-down rate)
- CHI injuries (Swift, Johnson, Burden out)
- CHI road struggles (21.8 PPG away)”
ATL +5.5 “Actual Matchup Edge:
- Falcons’ Bijan Robinson vs Patriots run defense = Falcons’ best path to success
- Patriots passing attack vs Falcons secondary (multiple DBs injured) = Patriots’ advantage
- Contrarian take: The data is so skewed toward Patriots that Falcons +5.5 likely has value”
HOU Win “How Houston Wins:
- Home dome advantage (worth 2-3 points)
- #1 defense limits Bo Nix to 17-20 points on road
- Stroud’s efficiency (66.5% completion) generates 4-5 FGs + 1-2 TDs
- DEN’s penalties (4th-most) stall 2-3 drives in critical moments
- Sharp money on HOU despite 82% public on DEN”
Visit my blog https://thepickten.com/?page_id=282 for the rest of the Picks.
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