Last week only one of the AI underdog picks won. It noted JAX over SF with high confidence and said the market hadn’t adjusted for the loss of Nick Bosa. I feel like we’re starting to get some real insights here. With the 8 AI personas, each with a different strategies and risk level, the results are starting to come into focus. Each AI is basically 50/50 with their picks, but only one of the riskiest players has actually made a profit. What I can note now is the fact that if you are no better than 50/50 then your bets need to pay over 2-1 odds to have any hope of coming out ahead. Leaving the riskiest of strategies as the most viable. We’ll see how this plays through the rest of the season.
This week the AI is definitely taking more chances.
TEN +7.5 “The market is overreacting to Tennessee’s 0-4 record while undervaluing their recent improvements and Arizona’s own vulnerabilities. This creates a classic contrarian spot with the desperate underdog and deflated total.”
NYJ +2.5 “Jets have been competitive (3 of 4 losses by 6 points or less) and this sets up as their breakthrough spot.
The market is overvaluing Cowboys based on overall stats while ignoring their road struggles and injury concerns.”
WAS +2.5 “The Commanders’ ground-control approach with Daniels’ mobility creates a perfect storm against an overvalued Chargers team dealing with offensive line issues.”
NE +7.5 “Drake Maye’s efficiency surge, Bills’ defensive injuries, Patriots’ special teams edge, elite run defense neutralizing Bills’ strength”
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