The Pick Ten

🏈 Week 2 A.I. Picks

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by

joshua
in

I decided to fill out the game with some more AI players. Parimutuel betting doesn’t really work with only a handful of players. The results where interesting and possibly inciteful. The AI consensus really liked PIT -3.5, also favored: JAX +3.5, DAL -4.5, and BAL -10.5

Here are the rest of the Bundy family picks:

**Peg (Risk Level 1)**
Most conservative - only bets on heavy favorites with clear advantages, avoids close games

Applying my risk-averse betting approach with a risk tolerance of 1/8, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] CIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] BUF -6 (Confidence Level: 70%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
4. [LAR at TEN] LAR -5.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
5. [CLE at BAL] BAL -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
6. [CHI at DET] DET -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
7. [DEN at IND] DEN -2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CAR at ARI] ARI -6.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
9. [SEA at PIT] PIT -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
10. [PHI at KC] KC -1 (Confidence Level: 65%)
11. [ATL at MIN] MIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [TB at HOU] TB -2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
13. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)

The games that best align with my risk-averse, conservative betting approach are the ones with clear statistical advantages for the favorites, minimal uncertainty, and large spreads. These include the Bengals, Bills, Rams, Cardinals, and Broncos as the most attractive options based on my analysis.

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**Kelly (Risk Level 2)**
Conservative - prefers favorites but will take small dogs with strong fundamentals

Applying my risk tolerance level of 2/8 and my betting approach of looking for value in favorites with solid fundamentals while considering small underdogs with strong defensive metrics or situational advantages, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] CIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] BUF -6 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
4. [LAR at TEN] LAR -5.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
5. [CLE at BAL] BAL -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
6. [CAR at ARI] ARI -6.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
7. [SEA at PIT] PIT -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CHI at DET] DET -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
9. [DEN at IND] DEN -2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
10. [TB at HOU] TB -2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
11. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
12. [PHI at KC] KC -1 (Confidence Level: 75%)
13. [ATL at MIN] MIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
14. [NYG at DAL] DAL -6 (Confidence Level: 75%)
15. [SF at NO] SF -4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)

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**Marcy (Risk Level 3)**
Moderately conservative - considers all factors but leans toward safer bets

Applying my risk tolerance level of 3/8 and my betting approach of balancing risk and reward while generally preferring lower-risk plays, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] CIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] BUF -6 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
4. [LAR at TEN] LAR -5.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
5. [CLE at BAL] BAL -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
6. [CHI at DET] DET -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
7. [DEN at IND] DEN -2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CAR at ARI] ARI -6.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
9. [SEA at PIT] PIT -3 (Confidence Level: 65%)
10. [PHI at KC] KC -1 (Confidence Level: 70%)
11. [ATL at MIN] MIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [TB at HOU] TB -2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
13. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
14. [NYG at DAL] DAL -6 (Confidence Level: 75%)
15. [SF at NO] SF -4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)

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**Jefferson (Risk Level 4)**
Balanced - weighs risk vs reward evenly, takes calculated risks

Applying my risk tolerance level of 4/8 and my balanced betting approach that weighs risk vs. reward evenly and looks for the best value regardless of public perception, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] CIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] BUF -6 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
4. [LAR at TEN] LAR -5.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
5. [CLE at BAL] BAL -3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
6. [CHI at DET] DET -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
7. [DEN at IND] DEN -2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CAR at ARI] ARI -6.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
9. [PHI at KC] PHI +1.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
10. [ATL at MIN] MIN -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
11. [TB at HOU] TB -2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
13. [SEA at PIT] PIT -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
14. [NYG at DAL] DAL -6 (Confidence Level: 75%)
15. [SF at NO] SF -4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)

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**Steve (Risk Level 5)**
Moderately aggressive - comfortable with underdogs when value is present

Applying my risk tolerance level of 5/8 and my betting approach of actively looking for undervalued underdogs and contrarian opportunities, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] JAX +3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] NYJ +6.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
4. [LAR at TEN] TEN +5.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
5. [CLE at BAL] CLE +3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
6. [CHI at DET] CHI +4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
7. [DEN at IND] IND +2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CAR at ARI] CAR +6.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
9. [SEA at PIT] PIT -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
10. [PHI at KC] PHI +1.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
11. [ATL at MIN] ATL +3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [TB at HOU] HOU +2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
13. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
14. [NYG at DAL] NYG +6 (Confidence Level: 70%)
15. [SF at NO] NO +4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)

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**Flo (Risk Level 6)**
Aggressive - targets higher upside plays, willing to fade public

Applying my risk tolerance level of 6/8 and my betting approach of seeking high-value underdogs and contrarian plays, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] JAX +3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] NYJ +6.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
4. [LAR at TEN] TEN +5.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
5. [CLE at BAL] CLE +11.5 (Confidence Level: 60%)
6. [CAR at ARI] CAR +6.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
7. [SEA at PIT] SEA +3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
8. [CHI at DET] CHI +4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
9. [DEN at IND] IND +2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
10. [ATL at MIN] ATL +3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
11. [TB at HOU] HOU +2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 75%)

The games that align best with my risk profile and betting approach are the underdogs with the potential for significant upsets, such as the Jaguars, Jets, Browns, Panthers, Seahawks, and Bears. These games have the highest confidence levels based on my analysis.

The Dolphins, Titans, and Colts also present interesting contrarian plays that I'm willing to take a risk on, given their potential to pull off upsets.

Overall, I've focused on identifying games where the underdogs have a strong chance of covering the spread or even winning outright, as this matches my aggressive, high-upside betting strategy.

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**Griff (Risk Level 7)**
Very aggressive - loves contrarian plays and upset potential

Applying my risk tolerance level of 7/8 and my betting approach of specializing in finding upset opportunities and contrarian value, here are my picks for the games:

1. [JAX at CIN] JAX +3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] NYJ +11.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
3. [NE at MIA] MIA -1.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
4. [LAR at TEN] TEN +5.5 (Confidence Level: 60%)
5. [CLE at BAL] CLE +11.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
6. [CHI at DET] CHI +4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
7. [DEN at IND] IND -2.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
8. [CAR at ARI] CAR +6.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
9. [PHI at KC] PHI +3 (Confidence Level: 75%)
10. [TB at HOU] HOU +2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
11. [LAC at LV] LAC -3 (Confidence Level: 75%)
12. [SEA at PIT] SEA +3 (Confidence Level: 65%)
13. [ATL at MIN] ATL +3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
14. [SF at NO] NO +4.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
15. [NYG at DAL] NYG +6 (Confidence Level: 75%)

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**Bud (Risk Level 8)**
Most risky - takes biggest underdogs and most volatile games

Alright, let's evaluate each game through your lens as a sports betting analyst with a Risk Level of 8/8:

1. [JAX at CIN] Jaguars +3.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
2. [BUF at NYJ] Bills -6 (Confidence Level: 75%)
3. [NE at MIA] Dolphins -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
4. [LAR at TEN] Titans +5.5 (Confidence Level: 60%)
5. [CLE at BAL] Ravens -3.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
6. [SEA at PIT] Steelers -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)
7. [CHI at DET] Lions -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
8. [DEN at IND] Broncos -2.5 (Confidence Level: 70%)
9. [CAR at ARI] Cardinals -6.5 (Confidence Level: 75%)
10. [PHI at KC] Chiefs -1.5 (Confidence Level: 80%)
11. [ATL at MIN] Vikings -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
12. [TB at HOU] Buccaneers -2.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
13. [LAC at LV] Chargers -3 (Confidence Level: 70%)

Your risk profile and betting approach of targeting the biggest underdogs and most unpredictable games aligns best with the following picks:

1. [LAR at TEN] Titans +5.5 (Confidence Level: 60%)
4. [CHI at DET] Lions -4.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)
11. [ATL at MIN] Vikings -3.5 (Confidence Level: 65%)

These games feature the largest underdogs and have the most potential for chaos and unpredictability, which matches your risk-seeking approach. The other games, while still viable options, are not as well-suited to your specific betting profile.

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